The Latest Round of Poll Results...
...bode ill for the Kerry campaign...
The chart tells the tale that Kerry supporters do not want to hear:
- Kerry has only been ahead in the polls during three periods:
1) Right after he locked up the Democratic nomination (but before Bush went on the air with his ad campaign which knocked down that lead)
2) In the middle of Abu Ghraib (but before Reagan's death which reminded Americans that the Reaganite in this race is President Bush)
3) After naming John Edwards as his running mate (but before the Swift Vets knocked the legs out from underneath his inane single-minded focus on Vietnam)
Matthew Dowd, the President's pollster predicted that the Democratic candidate would be ahead after #1 way back in November 2003!
He also predicted #3 before Kerry chose Edwards. (No one could have known going in to the DNC convention that Kerry would duck the issues of this campaign in favor of a single-minded focus on Vietnam and, in the process, assure that there would be no significant post-convention bounce.) So even if we agree that Dowd overstated the size of the bounce for political reasons - he was right on the substance.
In fairness, no one could have predicted #2. That one fell into Kerry's lap.
So let's go back to last November:
So despite the Democratic triumphalism of the past few months, the Bush team is right where they always expected to be with their biggest event still to come next week...And with this latest round of poll results, my guess is they're ahead of where they thought they'd be...
The chart tells the tale that Kerry supporters do not want to hear:
- Kerry has only been ahead in the polls during three periods:
1) Right after he locked up the Democratic nomination (but before Bush went on the air with his ad campaign which knocked down that lead)
2) In the middle of Abu Ghraib (but before Reagan's death which reminded Americans that the Reaganite in this race is President Bush)
3) After naming John Edwards as his running mate (but before the Swift Vets knocked the legs out from underneath his inane single-minded focus on Vietnam)
Matthew Dowd, the President's pollster predicted that the Democratic candidate would be ahead after #1 way back in November 2003!
"After the Democratic nominee is all but certain in the late winter/early spring, it would not be surprising for us to fall behind for a bit," writes Dowd.
"Once the Democratic nominee is all but assured, that person will receive a deluge of positive press at least for a couple of weeks, and this will be temporarily reflected in public opinion polls."
He also predicted #3 before Kerry chose Edwards. (No one could have known going in to the DNC convention that Kerry would duck the issues of this campaign in favor of a single-minded focus on Vietnam and, in the process, assure that there would be no significant post-convention bounce.) So even if we agree that Dowd overstated the size of the bounce for political reasons - he was right on the substance.
In fairness, no one could have predicted #2. That one fell into Kerry's lap.
So let's go back to last November:
The Bush strategist says "this race is likely to be very tight and go down to the wire," because of the "nature of a divided and polarized electorate."
So despite the Democratic triumphalism of the past few months, the Bush team is right where they always expected to be with their biggest event still to come next week...And with this latest round of poll results, my guess is they're ahead of where they thought they'd be...
posted by Jim | 2:57 PM
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