Shrinking the Playing Field...
...as November 2nd gets closer...
This is not good news for Democrats or the Kerry campaign. If they're only advertising in 14 states, 9 of which Gore won in 2000 then they are in deep trouble. They're claiming that they're reserving money for other states, but unless Kerry makes a strong comeback in the next 2 weeks I'm not buying it.
So as a result Kerry has to win all 9 of the states Gore won *and* pick off at least Ohio or Florida - so he has to win more than 70% of those 14 contests. Here's the rub:
The latest polls are showing Bush leading (even if only slightly) in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Oregon, Nevada and Wisconsin; and he's tied in Minnesota. So Bush is ahead in just shy of 60% of those 14 states (9 of which - as a reminder - are Blue states where Kerry should have been cruising easily).
I may not be an expert in probabilities, but I'd much rather have Bush's 60% than Kerry's 70% right now...
This is not good news for Democrats or the Kerry campaign. If they're only advertising in 14 states, 9 of which Gore won in 2000 then they are in deep trouble. They're claiming that they're reserving money for other states, but unless Kerry makes a strong comeback in the next 2 weeks I'm not buying it.
So as a result Kerry has to win all 9 of the states Gore won *and* pick off at least Ohio or Florida - so he has to win more than 70% of those 14 contests. Here's the rub:
The latest polls are showing Bush leading (even if only slightly) in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Oregon, Nevada and Wisconsin; and he's tied in Minnesota. So Bush is ahead in just shy of 60% of those 14 states (9 of which - as a reminder - are Blue states where Kerry should have been cruising easily).
I may not be an expert in probabilities, but I'd much rather have Bush's 60% than Kerry's 70% right now...
posted by Jim | 4:21 PM
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