Zogby Polls Undecideds...
...with some interesting results...
I tend to take Zogby's polls with a grain of salt: he generally tends to overstate the Democratic position. Whether that's through a flawed methodology or bias, I'm not qualified to say. However, his track record is somewhat mixed.
I don't discount his surveys, mind you. But let's just say I give his "margin of error" my own "margin of error" as I read them.
That being said, some of the internals on this particular poll are very revealing (and the results are well outside any "margin of error" addition/subtraction)...
To wit:
- President Bush gets a 77/23 unfavorable split on his job approval; yet voters are breaking for him 35/10. This suggests that even though they might not think that Bush is doing a bang-up job in the office, they think Kerry would be even worse.
- 67% like President Bush personally, while 52% dislike Kerry personally.
- 87% wish there were other candidates to choose from. People who wish there were other candidates to choose from are the ones most likely to stay home - meaning they may play NO role in the upcoming election.
- 40% watch FoxNews and by 54/40 they prefer to get their news from the internet rather than in newspapers. This is bad news for Democrats and for Big Media in general. It also explains why the Swift Vets have had such an impact on the recent polling even though the Big Media did their best to bury the story: these people are circumventing them to get their news anyway.
None of this is good news for the Kerry campaign. He's already had his chance to change these internals, but he missed out on it. Bush, on the other hand, has a solid week alone in the spotlight to do the same. My guess is that those who can be swayed, will be by the end of the week. We'll see some portion of those 35% who indicated they lean towards Bush move from "undecided" to "likely Bush Voters."
The rest? Based on these numbers showing they're not wild about either candidate, my best guess is that a large portion of them will simply stay home. Because of the general split on personal likeability between Bush and Kerry, those who do go to the polls are probably going to break roughly evenly between the two candidates.
I tend to take Zogby's polls with a grain of salt: he generally tends to overstate the Democratic position. Whether that's through a flawed methodology or bias, I'm not qualified to say. However, his track record is somewhat mixed.
I don't discount his surveys, mind you. But let's just say I give his "margin of error" my own "margin of error" as I read them.
That being said, some of the internals on this particular poll are very revealing (and the results are well outside any "margin of error" addition/subtraction)...
To wit:
- President Bush gets a 77/23 unfavorable split on his job approval; yet voters are breaking for him 35/10. This suggests that even though they might not think that Bush is doing a bang-up job in the office, they think Kerry would be even worse.
- 67% like President Bush personally, while 52% dislike Kerry personally.
- 87% wish there were other candidates to choose from. People who wish there were other candidates to choose from are the ones most likely to stay home - meaning they may play NO role in the upcoming election.
- 40% watch FoxNews and by 54/40 they prefer to get their news from the internet rather than in newspapers. This is bad news for Democrats and for Big Media in general. It also explains why the Swift Vets have had such an impact on the recent polling even though the Big Media did their best to bury the story: these people are circumventing them to get their news anyway.
None of this is good news for the Kerry campaign. He's already had his chance to change these internals, but he missed out on it. Bush, on the other hand, has a solid week alone in the spotlight to do the same. My guess is that those who can be swayed, will be by the end of the week. We'll see some portion of those 35% who indicated they lean towards Bush move from "undecided" to "likely Bush Voters."
The rest? Based on these numbers showing they're not wild about either candidate, my best guess is that a large portion of them will simply stay home. Because of the general split on personal likeability between Bush and Kerry, those who do go to the polls are probably going to break roughly evenly between the two candidates.
posted by Jim | 3:01 PM
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