It'z News to Me

The news of the day...and my own peculiar take on it...

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Favorable News... on the way...

This story is one more example of why the latest Pew, WaPo/ABC, and Zogby polls showing Kerry still trailing Bush by 3-5 points even in the immediate afterglow of the first debate is such a huge problem for Kerry specifically and Democrats in general.

Let's look at the upcoming schedule:

- Friday's Employment Report: Any reports that show improvements in jobs are going to benefit the president. John Kerry and Old Media can complain how there aren't enough new jobs, but to the average voter there isn't a hill of beans of difference between 100,000 new jobs and 300,000 new jobs if he already has a job or he wasn't one of those people with new jobs. All the average voter hears is "new jobs created" and can equate that pretty readily with a growing economy.

The upcoming report is special though because there will be revisions, no doubt upward revisions, in the employment numbers over the past year. Again, Old Media and lefty bloggers can bitch all they want about the numbers but all the average voter is going to hear is "more jobs created than originally reported."

Trying to paint this economy as some sort of Depression-redux is going to sound ridiculous on a day filled with the news of how many new jobs are being created. I can hear the ammunition being loaded over at Bush-Cheney Central as we speak...

- Saturday's Afghan Election and the offensive in Iraq: The elections in Afghanistan on Saturday - even if they are marred by violence - will remind people that it was the president who led us to free that country, and nothing Kerry can say will change that.

On the offensive in Iraq, I'm of the firm belief that a significant portion of the criticism of our policy there has been the failure to deal strongly with the "insurgency" there. The recent moves in Samarra and Sadr City will change that dynamic decisively in the president's favor provided there is follow-through to Fallujah and other terrorist strongholds.

- John and Teresa: The stream of nonsense coming from these two never ceases to amaze me.

When attempting to defend his "global test" comment in the debate, he makes it worse by expanding it "elsewhere," (I'm assuming he means Martians because the folks from Alpha Centauri are reliably part of the "coalition of the bribed and coerced.") and Teresa is either a complete idiot or completely off her meds - take your pick. They can't keep them silent for another 29 days, and they will continue to give voters reasons not to give them four years on the world stage to continue embarrassing themselves (and us).

- Debate expectations: Bush's lackluster performance in the first debate will inevitably lower expectations for the upcoming debates. In addition, the Old Media considered foreign policy his strongest point while the economy generally favors Democrats and the town hall format was never supposed to be good for Bush. (I would argue to the contrary that Iraq was the president's biggest vulnerability, and Kerry was unable to make his case persuasively enough to move the poll numbers.) But this Friday is going to find Kerry having to make the case for higher taxes and defending over $2 trillion in new spending for which he will have to find additional taxes to cover his campaign promises. I would argue this is Kerry's biggest vulnerability: just ask Walter Mondale how far promises to raise taxes get you on Election Day.