Internals Highlight Problems...
DJ does a breakdown over at his site on the poll internals by gender, race and party affililation...The news is exceedingly bad for Kerry...
Given the demographic changes over the last 40 years (a growing minority population, greater female participation at all levels, party registration levels), I'm not necessarily a fan of trying to draw parallels to previous elections, but I think the broader point he's making about Kerry's multiple problems in getting to an electoral majority is accurate.
The internals are showing essentially that Kerry has half the crossover appeal of Bush, doesn't fire up his minority base, and - even being generous - barely breaks even with independent voters. These poll internals tend to be bear out what we already know about this race empirically:
1) "9/11 Democrats" such as Ed Koch and Ron Silver are a legitimate phenomenon. There is no such thing as a "Kerry Republican" on the other hand.
2) African-American leaders have been complaining for months about the Kerry campaign's lack of outreach to their community. In addition, pictures of him vacations at his resort homes or engaged in high-cost sports are unlikely to endear him to working-class minorities.
3) Kerry has serious credibility and likeability problems. Swing voters tend to vote on who they believe and, on a gut level, who they like. Kerry loses to Bush by big margins on those measures. On the other hand, there is discontent about the War in Iraq and on certain social issues that would lead to an "Anybody But Bush" vote in John Kerry's favor. That the internals would show a near even split is, therefore, hardly surprising.
Any one of these might spell problems in a close campaign. Having all three is an almost certain recipe for defeat...
Given the demographic changes over the last 40 years (a growing minority population, greater female participation at all levels, party registration levels), I'm not necessarily a fan of trying to draw parallels to previous elections, but I think the broader point he's making about Kerry's multiple problems in getting to an electoral majority is accurate.
The internals are showing essentially that Kerry has half the crossover appeal of Bush, doesn't fire up his minority base, and - even being generous - barely breaks even with independent voters. These poll internals tend to be bear out what we already know about this race empirically:
1) "9/11 Democrats" such as Ed Koch and Ron Silver are a legitimate phenomenon. There is no such thing as a "Kerry Republican" on the other hand.
2) African-American leaders have been complaining for months about the Kerry campaign's lack of outreach to their community. In addition, pictures of him vacations at his resort homes or engaged in high-cost sports are unlikely to endear him to working-class minorities.
3) Kerry has serious credibility and likeability problems. Swing voters tend to vote on who they believe and, on a gut level, who they like. Kerry loses to Bush by big margins on those measures. On the other hand, there is discontent about the War in Iraq and on certain social issues that would lead to an "Anybody But Bush" vote in John Kerry's favor. That the internals would show a near even split is, therefore, hardly surprising.
Any one of these might spell problems in a close campaign. Having all three is an almost certain recipe for defeat...
posted by Jim | 1:00 PM
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